Yesterday the Statistics Canada announced a surprising INCREASE to inflation figures for February at 2.6% (up from 1.9% in January), yikes. 

The increase came as federal government's temporary tax break (GST/HST Holiday) came to an end mid-February. Not only that, but actual figures came as a surprise to many economists, which called for a 2.2% increase. 

Without a doubt, the Bank of Canada has a tough job ahead of them – given the political run-around regarding U.S. Tariffs, and a hotter than expected inflation landscape. 

Last week, the BoC trimmed rates by 25 bps, now with a policy interest rate of 2.6%.

Here's where we stand now with regards to home prices, CPI and rates:

The next key date for the BoC: April 16, 2025

Macklem noted last week the central bank cannot fully offset the hit to Canada's economy from steep tariffs and will focus on how inflation reacts to pressures of a prolonged trade war. Expectations are that inflation will continue to rise, fuelled by tariffs.

All eyes are set on how the tariff situation unfolds in early April, while financial markets are pricing in a ~62% chance the BoC will hold rates steady. It's really a toss up at the moment of what will happen. 

As always, I'll keep you up to date on the macro front with a Calgary focus, on real estate. Reach out if you have any questions at all!

As always, we're looking for inventory so if you're thinking about selling your home, please reach out and we'll schedule a call to see how we can help!

NEW market data is in for the first couple of months of 2025, and it's shaping up to be quite an interesting development so far.

Are the tides turning to more of a BUYER'S market, after years' long SELLER'S market? It might appear so, let dive in... 

On Monday CREB release it's monthly activity data, highlighting substantial year-over-year growth for the second month in a row of units for sale in February. Inventory increased across all price ranges, but we saw a BIG increase in homes priced under $500,000 (particularly driven by increases in apartment and townhome sectors). Months of supply was ~2.4 months, representing double of what it was last year. 

Prices remained quite stable. This is likely welcomed news for home buyers, seeing more options on the market and not having to go in extremely aggressively – HOWEVER, we are still seeing multiple offer scenarios for select homes from my own anecdotal experience with clients so it really depends on the property / area / condition and price. 

Here's the summary from CREB: 

So far this year, we ARE seeing ~11% MORE listings than our 5-year average and ~16% FEWER sales than our 5-year average, indicating an easing relative to prior recent years of activity. It was a very tight market in 2022-2023 (grey and dark grey lines). 

Here we are again, on the precipice of PENDING tariffs (albeit a little bit of reprieve for ~30 years - minus the tariffs on steel & aluminium announced on Monday)...

So as we slowly unravel the mind of the new U.S. president, to get to the heart of the issue, we really have to wonder -- how do these tariffs impact Canada, but more specifically, Alberta, Calgary and the Calgary housing market!

A few things are for sure - a lot of uncertainty on the horizon, without any REAL implications, as of yet. 

What we can focus on is what we DO know, and based on simple economics, here are things we know that the TARIFFS CAN IMPACT:

1. DECLINING INTEREST RATES: we've already seen 5 cuts since last year and we are facing an enormous wall of mortgage renewals (60%) by the end of 2026. We know that tariffs would significantly handicap Canada's economy, and to fight increasing inflation due to price increases as a result of tariffs, the BoC may have to cut rates further to keep our economy from falling through the bottom. BMO has forecasted a policy rate of 1.50% by the end of 2025, if U.S. imposes the tariffs. Whether or not that will happen is to be seen, but the takeaway here is that the BoC will have to cut rates to combat a declining economy if that happens.

2. CONSUMERS DELAY PURCHASES: In the same vein as increasing costs, the result are that consumers will begin to delay big purchases such as vehicles and properties, causing some softening in demand. However, those who have to buy a home, still have to buy a home and will still, buy a home.

3. PRICE OF NEW BUILDS TO INCREASE: With tariffs on home building supplies and raw materials, we would likely see a material increase in the cost of new homes, to the tune of 10-15%, or more. It's unlikely that builders would just eat that cost, but rather that will be passed down to the end buyer. The trickle down impact COULD BE that buyers migrate towards the resale market (leading to further demand in an already constricted supply landscape), and maybe lead to resale home values increase.

4. COST OF RENOVATIONS TO INCREASE: Similar to costs going up on new builds, the cost of renovations will also likely see a dramatic increase (recall the lumber shortage impact of 2021).

5. UNEMPLOYMENT TO INCREASE IN OTHER PROVINCES: Extrapolating the impact of tariffs - it would appear that tariffs will impact industries that are largely manufacturing / aerospace / lumber based. This truly impacts the likes of Ontario, BC, Quebec, and a lesser extent, Alberta. Sure we may see the 10% tariff on energy exports, but that is not close to the 25% on other goods produced by other provinces.

6. INCREASED INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRATION TO ALBERTA: That said, should we see those heavily-populated and higher-cost-of-living provinces' economies decline, we very well could be on the receiving end of ADDITIONAL interprovincial migrants looking for good paying jobs in a lower cost of living province. Also, consider those who have already moved here from those provinces, the small foothold of those who are here will likely attract relatives, friends, family to also make the move, easier. CREB forecasts Calgary's population growth to be 3.1% in 2025.

Happy Lunar New Year! Wishing everyone great health, happiness, love, joy, peace and a very prosperous New Year!

The Year of the Snake represents a year of transformation, wisdom and growth – shedding of the past, and a year of revival and renewal!

Concurrently today, the Bank of Canada trimmed it's policy rate down by 25bps, to now 3.0% (from 3.25%) as the sixth consecutive reduction since June. 

We're now seeing inflation rate steady around 2%, where the BoC has targeted for the past few years.

However, the looming U.S. tariffs remain a material concern for the future of our country, noted Macklem.

The BoC can only do so much for the economy if we end up in a trade war, but what the tariffs are, how long they could last, the impact of them are still yet to be determined. If tariffs are imposed, we could see upward pressure on inflation, again... potentially leading to more rate cuts to spur economic activity (per Doug Porter, BMO Chief Economist). 

As it relates to what it means for Calgary, specifically – who knows. We don't have a crystal ball, but we do what we can given the current circumstance and experience. Like we've said many times, you cannot time the market, but the only thing that matters is time spent in the market for real estate. 

We'll see how things unfold over the next few weeks, but as always, I'll keep you tuned in and updated!

Kicking off 2025, we had CREB's annual forecast day yesterday, bringing in some LIVE insights for what may be coming to Calgary's Real Estate Market this upcoming year. 

A few key drivers as you'll see below, but our year is ripe with uncertainty, namely around the potential U.S. tariffs. However, Alberta has been very well-positioned, and our neighbours south of the border need our energy exports. The true impact of the tariffs is very much up in the air... 

That said, below is the summary of the forecast for sales and price growth for 2025 (Full CREB Report HERE):

Key Factors Driving for Increasing Demand:

• Past gains in population and employment continue to work it's way through the economy

• Easing lending rates (Q1 2025E = 2.75%; Q2 2025E = 2.25%; Q3 2025E = 2.00%; Q4 2025E = 2.00% - RBC Economics)

• Continued interprovincial migration (Calgary saw >5% population growth in 2024, expected to ease to +3.1% in 2025)

• Alberta to lead economic growth in Canada (Alberta GDP growth expected to be +2.5% in 2025, no change from last year - ATB Economics; AB's growth to be driven in investments in alternative energy, carbon capture, food manufacturing, tech & AI) - notable, top growth sectors in AB: Construction, Retail Trade, Healthcare, Education and Primary & Utilities

• A note around employment figures: we're expected to see a decrease in employment growth, however Anne-Marie (CREB's Chief Economist) provided her insights into this as it's a bit nuanced - long story short, is that the unemployment figures have been elevated due to the material increase of international migrants, who are here looking for work; rather than gloom and doom layoffs, etc. This is important to understand, as these migrants should get absorbed into the workforce over the next while, hopefully contributing to improved employment figures

Key Factors Driving for Increasing Supply:

• Slowing international migration (AB population growth expected to see an increase still, +1.9% in 2025, down from 4.4% in 2024)

• Increased competition from new home sales (22,563 housing units have been completed at the end of November 2024, including 9,340 purpose-built rentals, increasing supply, and softening the rental market; new home starts reaching record highs, and expected to slow but remains strong)

• Heightened economic uncertainty (i.e. potential tariffs, politics)

If you're thinking about making moves this year, definitely reach out to get our sense of the market and our expertise! Always free for a call.

Well, a new year and new property assessments are out in Calgary. If you're a homeowner, you may (or may not have) received your property tax assessment in the mail, but you can check online HERE (you'll need to verify you're not a robot to access). These assessments are based on the physical condition of the home on December 31, 2024 but the estimates value on July 1, 2024... more on this below.

Those of you who own homes will likely see a material increase in property assessments this year - an overall increase of 15% since last year for residential properties across our city (+3% in commercial values, Chinook Mall taking the lead as the highest non-residential property at >$1 billion). 

So, what does this actually mean? 

Based on to City of Calgary website: "the assessed value (market value) is the value determined by the collective actions of the market. A single sale does not determine market value. Properties are assessed using mass appraisal, which means that The City reviews multiple sales to determine an estimate of market value...Property Assessment is the determination of value for a property for taxation purposes." = in short, all for the purpose of the City's budgetary requirements for the upcoming year.

Key point: property tax assessments are completely different than how much a buyer is willing to pay for that property (fair market value), in today's market. 

Yes, the City uses market information to help guide their assessment, but it's also driven by how much tax they require for their budgets. Unfortunately, it looks like it's been year-over-year increases in property tax (+5.5% overall tax increase for residential properties). For some people, they could likely expect a much larger tax bill as well (one home owner saw a 60% increase in assessment this year; makes no sense thinking property prices increased by 60%...LINK)

The other lever the city as is what's called the mill rate, which is effectively the tax rate they use on the assessed value to determine the tax chargeable on the property ([$assessed value] x [%mill rate] +/- [adjustments] = property income tax bill).

That said, many people believe property tax assessments have some bearing on market value, but they are two completely different things. Yes, the City uses market data as one tool to determine assessments, but there are many other factors at play.

Here are some other factors used to assess property: 

For those of you who are completely new to property tax, here's the assessment cycle to keep in mind:

As you open your mail this month, you might be surprised to find the value of your home increase a material amount, but also know because of that your property tax has also increased.

Separately this week, we've also hear that Calgary now has the fastest declining rental rates in all of Canada, largely driven by increase rental supply and slowing international immigration (SOURCE). If you're an investor, make sure you run your pro-forma figures / sensitivities to understand the impact, and if you're renting, hopefully you're gaining some reprieve (maybe time to re-negotiate with your landlord once your lease is up).