While spring is now behind us as of 4 days ago, CREB has published it's seasonal market update, highlighting real estate activity here in Calgary (and surrounding areas) that we've seen from January to May. 

Key Themes

The Not So Good

• Continued domestic economic uncertainty leading to lower consumer confidence

• Ongoing global economic uncertainties leading to lower business investment in Canada

• Slower trade

• Pause in rate hikes (but also fewer rate cuts)

• Record high housing starts (more new-built supply)

• Slower immigration levels (yet still strong)

The Good

• Alberta continues to lead Canadian GDP

• Supportive population growth with previous gains

• Resilient job market growth

• Lower expected lending rates in 2H

Overall, sales are slowing and we're seeing a much more balanced market. However, this is nuanced, as we see strong seller's market persist in lower-priced detached product (under $600,000). We're also expected to see some more market stability, without double-digit gains like we've seen in prior years, but also no huge prices losses. 

CREB expected prices to stabilize for the remainder of 2025:

In more detail, here's the breakdown:

Current Economic Outlook

• Current Inflation: 1.7% (April 2025)

• WTI Price: US$72/bbl (June 17, 2025)

• Policy Interest Rate: 2.75% (April 2025) --> 2.25% (2025 Expected)

• Calgary employment continues to be strong, peaking earlier this year since 2014

• Alberta net migration expected to see 41,880 NEW individuals arrive (majority of those to be interprovincial)

New Construction & Rental Market

Off record highs from last year, we continue to see new home starts continue to rise. However, much of the product being built is higher-density, intended for the rental market. This will continue softening the rental market. New product is also expected to weigh on condos and rows. We're also seeing higher days on market for neighbourhoods that have much more new-built product (infill type areas), since all that new product is competing with the resale market as well. 

For more property specific details, see the FULL REPORT HERE.

CREB release its monthly update for MAY this week, and it looks like prices have pulled back, a bit on an aggregate basis, largely due to Rowhomes and Apartments.

However, the detached market continues to be VERY active, now is the time to pursue a move if that's what you're thinking.

Despite the pullbacks and slower sales this year, we're still seeing sales remain >11% over long term trends for this time of year = very active market (i.e., # of detached home sales for the same week last year, nearly identical).

If folks are talking about a market crash in Calgary, that is far from the truth, and we're seeing a balancing from extreme sellers' conditions for the last few years. 

Stats below...

Given the housing crunch we've seen over the last couple of years, the City of Calgary announced a NEW HOUSING initiative Monday, targeting more affordable housing projects which will receive $30.7 million in investment for approximately 480 non-profit, non-market homes for Calgarians (Housing Capital Initiative).

These projects include senior, family and Indigenous housing projects across the city, ranging from one-bedrooms to three-bedrooms. 

These projects are located below:

Some of these projects will be using pre-fabricated modular housing units, allowing record build time - 21 days to build a completed module, with achieving 84 homes in 69 days. 

The current statistic is that ~275 people move here to Calgary, every single day - which has led to a massive increase in housing demand. With a detached home selling for ~$770K and condos for ~$336K in Calgary, owning a home remains out of reach or a challenge for many.

As many of you expect, this only addresses a very small portion of the underserved population - which is important, however the bigger picture remains challenged on the supply side for now for the general population. The picture is improving, as we're now seeing MUCH more inventory come to market (stats pulled every week at our office); approximately 128% increase in listings across all property types compared to the same time last year!

My recommendation if you're thinking about selling is to hit the market sooner rather than later. We often see slower sellers come to market in late Spring, which sees a build-up of inventory through to the end of summer, where it's typically slower (summer holiday), and your listing won't get the attention it deserves. 

If you're thinking about selling your property, give me a call / email, and I'd be happy to drop by to provide some professional advice on how we can sell your home in today's market!

Many of you might be wondering what the current Calgary real estate market is like now... after the Canadian Federal Election, and following the onset of certain tariffs from the U.S... 

CREB reported their monthly statistics (albeit April data), it shows an interesting picture leaving many wondering if we're back to a balanced market. I also came across an interesting article worth looking at (more about that below)..

Compared to April last year, we've seen a significant increase in listings, with total inventories rising to 5,876 units during the month -- this is double what we saw last year! However, last year's inventory was exceptionally low, and this total represents more of the longer-term trend. Sales are still happening, also consistent with long-term trends (despite being 22% lower than last year, which was an outlier). 

Previous gains in migration, stable employment levels, lower lending rates, better supply choice have help keep prices stable. With total months of supply, we're in a balanced market (generally), but really depends which segment we're looking at. 

Now, on that interesting article.. we know Alberta has seen a drove of people moving to the province for LOWER COSTS, LOWER TAXES, HIGHER AVERAGE INCOMES, but did you realize that the bulk of interprovincial migration is largely from people between the ages of 25-44, calling Alberta their new home. (Article) Why this is important, is that this demographic DRIVES consumption, and economic PRODUCTION. So we're seeing migration, but also skilled migration into our province which will set us up for (hopefully) a very promising future in our province.

Well, here we have it - Canadians have surprisingly supported another Liberal term, I guess we'll see how that goes over the next few years amongst a very interesting macroeconomic backdrop: US tariffs, rising inflation, increasing development, labour shortage, slower immigration than prior years. 

That said, it might be worth noting a few facts I came across this week on CALGARY, and why we're building SO MUCH it seems like. Given all the development going on in the city, are we OVER-BUILDING what actual demand is? Well, let's have a look:

1. Over the last year, 91,000 new people made Calgary home

2. Prior to that, 83,000 new people made Calgary home

That's a total combined 164,000 new people that have moved to the Calgary metropolitan area in just the last TWO YEARS. That's the entire population of Kelowna, moving to Calgary in the last ~700 days (~10% of the population of the city).

In 2024, Calgary achieved a RECORD 20,000+ new housing starts and 19,500 the year prior (i.e., 24% of all new people who moved here) - that is more PER CAPITA than any Canadian city assessed by the CMHC. The trend continued in Q1 2025, and Calgary alone, is producing more than 50% of Alberta's housing starts... 

So we consider that there are ~40,000 new housing starts against 164,000 people that have moved here over the last two years, that's a stark contrast. We definitely have seen that in our rental market with rents increasing at the fastest pace last year (although now softening...).

That's just a taste of what's happened over the last little while... will be interesting to see what the Feds will do to support housing, and if can actually be achieved (we'll see).

If you're looking to sell your home, please reach out for a free, no-obligation market assessment, and I'd love to give my opinion based on professional service, experience and knowledge of the Calgary market. Thanks again for everyone's support for helping me achieve the Top 10 Realtor in our office last year of ~120 agents -- more to come!

Well, we're finally here -- the long awaited Federal Election in Canada, set for April 28th. If you haven't gone out to vote yet, I highly encourage it! Make your voice heard, and the best way to do that is by voting. Now of course, I'm going staying away from talking politics here, but thought it would be worth sharing the leading parties' plans for HOUSING here in Canada, since it's been quite the hot issue these days. 

As with all things market-related, we really need to consider the SUPPLY and DEMAND side of the equation to get a full picture of how housing could unfold under each party's leadership. 

On the DEMAND side, there's certainly a lot to consider (immigration, economy, interest rates, demographics, etc.). Too much to cover here today, but we can touch on immigration. Much of the housing demand has been seen as a direct result of influx of international migrants, with trickle-down effect on local demographic demand, rental housing, and much more. For now, all parties acknowledge this is an issue and have dialed BACK immigration - with both the Conservative and Liberal parties both supporting immigration CAPS. This is a shift from policy for the Liberal party which emphasized economic growth through immigration. 

On the SUPPLY side, here's a quick comparison of the platform policies for each party, so you're aware:

How realistic these targets / goals / policies are, are to be determined.. 

Of course there are certainly other considerations when picking who to lead our country next - but wanted to share from a real estate perspective. Make sure you get out there to make your voice heard!

WELCOME TO SPRING! Hoping everyone is enjoying the nice weather we've been having in Calgary this week - lots to do around town!

As we step into the notoriously busy real estate season, CREB issued their monthly market update for MARCH... 

Key theme over the last three months has been, and continues to be ongoing economic uncertainty weighing on consumer confidence, ultimately impacting the housing activity last month, seeing a 19% decline of sales (YoY). The silver lining here are that prices have stabilized, with less pressure to the upside providing some variety to buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines. Not to mention, rates are also expected to come down FURTHER, with the next BoC meeting on interest rates scheduled for April 16, 2025. 

It's no surprise, HOWEVER, important to note that sales still remain stronger than during the oil price downturn in 2015-2020; summary below:

We had the pleasure of hosting Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board at our offices on Monday to chat about 1) what's happened so far this year for Calgary real estate, and 2) what we can expect for the remainder of the year. I've included some interesting notes below for your consumption, but please reach out if you have any questions!

#1 – Inventories in Calgary continue to rise: yet we're still below the long-term average of 4,672 units for sale and is a dramatic increase in inventories since last year (+76% YoY).

#2 – Prices have seen an extraordinary increase over the last few years, and we're now starting to see a slowdown in growth (which is healthy for the overall market). Notable, we're seeing the biggest shift in the Apartment sector, where there is increased inventory.

#3 – Detached homes sales have SLOWED, but largely due to limited supply under $700K. Prices have somewhat stabilized after the past 3 years after seeing a ~23% increase.

#4 – Location matters for real estate with the tightest part of the detached homes market being properties in the South priced between $500-600K, and the opposite with a lot of inventory in the NE in ranges between $700-800K. 

#5 – What's in store for 2025, you may ask?? Well - there's one thing for sure, and that is uncertainty. Business investment slows when there is uncertainty, particularly around tariffs (on what, for how long, how much?), and the outcome of the Canadian federal election.. 

For certain, we can expect slower migration rates compared to the last few years, and increasing housing supply as new builds come onto the market. But, the market will ebb and flow as it always has. So long as you're aware of the impacts and trends, and armed with good information and advice, that's the best we can do!

Yesterday the Statistics Canada announced a surprising INCREASE to inflation figures for February at 2.6% (up from 1.9% in January), yikes. 

The increase came as federal government's temporary tax break (GST/HST Holiday) came to an end mid-February. Not only that, but actual figures came as a surprise to many economists, which called for a 2.2% increase. 

Without a doubt, the Bank of Canada has a tough job ahead of them – given the political run-around regarding U.S. Tariffs, and a hotter than expected inflation landscape. 

Last week, the BoC trimmed rates by 25 bps, now with a policy interest rate of 2.6%.

Here's where we stand now with regards to home prices, CPI and rates:

The next key date for the BoC: April 16, 2025

Macklem noted last week the central bank cannot fully offset the hit to Canada's economy from steep tariffs and will focus on how inflation reacts to pressures of a prolonged trade war. Expectations are that inflation will continue to rise, fuelled by tariffs.

All eyes are set on how the tariff situation unfolds in early April, while financial markets are pricing in a ~62% chance the BoC will hold rates steady. It's really a toss up at the moment of what will happen. 

As always, I'll keep you up to date on the macro front with a Calgary focus, on real estate. Reach out if you have any questions at all!

As always, we're looking for inventory so if you're thinking about selling your home, please reach out and we'll schedule a call to see how we can help!

NEW market data is in for the first couple of months of 2025, and it's shaping up to be quite an interesting development so far.

Are the tides turning to more of a BUYER'S market, after years' long SELLER'S market? It might appear so, let dive in... 

On Monday CREB release it's monthly activity data, highlighting substantial year-over-year growth for the second month in a row of units for sale in February. Inventory increased across all price ranges, but we saw a BIG increase in homes priced under $500,000 (particularly driven by increases in apartment and townhome sectors). Months of supply was ~2.4 months, representing double of what it was last year. 

Prices remained quite stable. This is likely welcomed news for home buyers, seeing more options on the market and not having to go in extremely aggressively – HOWEVER, we are still seeing multiple offer scenarios for select homes from my own anecdotal experience with clients so it really depends on the property / area / condition and price. 

Here's the summary from CREB: 

So far this year, we ARE seeing ~11% MORE listings than our 5-year average and ~16% FEWER sales than our 5-year average, indicating an easing relative to prior recent years of activity. It was a very tight market in 2022-2023 (grey and dark grey lines). 

Here we are again, on the precipice of PENDING tariffs (albeit a little bit of reprieve for ~30 years - minus the tariffs on steel & aluminium announced on Monday)...

So as we slowly unravel the mind of the new U.S. president, to get to the heart of the issue, we really have to wonder -- how do these tariffs impact Canada, but more specifically, Alberta, Calgary and the Calgary housing market!

A few things are for sure - a lot of uncertainty on the horizon, without any REAL implications, as of yet. 

What we can focus on is what we DO know, and based on simple economics, here are things we know that the TARIFFS CAN IMPACT:

1. DECLINING INTEREST RATES: we've already seen 5 cuts since last year and we are facing an enormous wall of mortgage renewals (60%) by the end of 2026. We know that tariffs would significantly handicap Canada's economy, and to fight increasing inflation due to price increases as a result of tariffs, the BoC may have to cut rates further to keep our economy from falling through the bottom. BMO has forecasted a policy rate of 1.50% by the end of 2025, if U.S. imposes the tariffs. Whether or not that will happen is to be seen, but the takeaway here is that the BoC will have to cut rates to combat a declining economy if that happens.

2. CONSUMERS DELAY PURCHASES: In the same vein as increasing costs, the result are that consumers will begin to delay big purchases such as vehicles and properties, causing some softening in demand. However, those who have to buy a home, still have to buy a home and will still, buy a home.

3. PRICE OF NEW BUILDS TO INCREASE: With tariffs on home building supplies and raw materials, we would likely see a material increase in the cost of new homes, to the tune of 10-15%, or more. It's unlikely that builders would just eat that cost, but rather that will be passed down to the end buyer. The trickle down impact COULD BE that buyers migrate towards the resale market (leading to further demand in an already constricted supply landscape), and maybe lead to resale home values increase.

4. COST OF RENOVATIONS TO INCREASE: Similar to costs going up on new builds, the cost of renovations will also likely see a dramatic increase (recall the lumber shortage impact of 2021).

5. UNEMPLOYMENT TO INCREASE IN OTHER PROVINCES: Extrapolating the impact of tariffs - it would appear that tariffs will impact industries that are largely manufacturing / aerospace / lumber based. This truly impacts the likes of Ontario, BC, Quebec, and a lesser extent, Alberta. Sure we may see the 10% tariff on energy exports, but that is not close to the 25% on other goods produced by other provinces.

6. INCREASED INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRATION TO ALBERTA: That said, should we see those heavily-populated and higher-cost-of-living provinces' economies decline, we very well could be on the receiving end of ADDITIONAL interprovincial migrants looking for good paying jobs in a lower cost of living province. Also, consider those who have already moved here from those provinces, the small foothold of those who are here will likely attract relatives, friends, family to also make the move, easier. CREB forecasts Calgary's population growth to be 3.1% in 2025.

Happy Lunar New Year! Wishing everyone great health, happiness, love, joy, peace and a very prosperous New Year!

The Year of the Snake represents a year of transformation, wisdom and growth – shedding of the past, and a year of revival and renewal!

Concurrently today, the Bank of Canada trimmed it's policy rate down by 25bps, to now 3.0% (from 3.25%) as the sixth consecutive reduction since June. 

We're now seeing inflation rate steady around 2%, where the BoC has targeted for the past few years.

However, the looming U.S. tariffs remain a material concern for the future of our country, noted Macklem.

The BoC can only do so much for the economy if we end up in a trade war, but what the tariffs are, how long they could last, the impact of them are still yet to be determined. If tariffs are imposed, we could see upward pressure on inflation, again... potentially leading to more rate cuts to spur economic activity (per Doug Porter, BMO Chief Economist). 

As it relates to what it means for Calgary, specifically – who knows. We don't have a crystal ball, but we do what we can given the current circumstance and experience. Like we've said many times, you cannot time the market, but the only thing that matters is time spent in the market for real estate. 

We'll see how things unfold over the next few weeks, but as always, I'll keep you tuned in and updated!