CREB Spring 2025 Market Outlook

While spring is now behind us as of 4 days ago, CREB has published it's seasonal market update, highlighting real estate activity here in Calgary (and surrounding areas) that we've seen from January to May. 

Key Themes

The Not So Good

• Continued domestic economic uncertainty leading to lower consumer confidence

• Ongoing global economic uncertainties leading to lower business investment in Canada

• Slower trade

• Pause in rate hikes (but also fewer rate cuts)

• Record high housing starts (more new-built supply)

• Slower immigration levels (yet still strong)

The Good

• Alberta continues to lead Canadian GDP

• Supportive population growth with previous gains

• Resilient job market growth

• Lower expected lending rates in 2H

Overall, sales are slowing and we're seeing a much more balanced market. However, this is nuanced, as we see strong seller's market persist in lower-priced detached product (under $600,000). We're also expected to see some more market stability, without double-digit gains like we've seen in prior years, but also no huge prices losses. 

CREB expected prices to stabilize for the remainder of 2025:

In more detail, here's the breakdown:

Current Economic Outlook

• Current Inflation: 1.7% (April 2025)

• WTI Price: US$72/bbl (June 17, 2025)

• Policy Interest Rate: 2.75% (April 2025) --> 2.25% (2025 Expected)

• Calgary employment continues to be strong, peaking earlier this year since 2014

• Alberta net migration expected to see 41,880 NEW individuals arrive (majority of those to be interprovincial)

New Construction & Rental Market

Off record highs from last year, we continue to see new home starts continue to rise. However, much of the product being built is higher-density, intended for the rental market. This will continue softening the rental market. New product is also expected to weigh on condos and rows. We're also seeing higher days on market for neighbourhoods that have much more new-built product (infill type areas), since all that new product is competing with the resale market as well. 

For more property specific details, see the FULL REPORT HERE.