Last week, our offices had Anne-Marie, Chief Economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board give her updated views since their latest forecast in the Spring, how things have evolved over the summer and what's potentially in store for the rest of the year. Some interesting takeaways I wanted to share. 

What Has Happened this Year?

Sales Down (Remains Above LT Trends)

We've seen sales slow down, this year in comparison to the previous years with record high activity, across all segments of the housing market. 

Detached Homes: -17% drop in sales activity

Semi-Detached: -16% drop in sales activity

Row Homes: -22% drop in sales activity

Apartments: -34% drop in sales activity

In basic form, a drop in sales is due to a reduction in buyer and sellers meeting to achieve a sale. Slower demand (which we will discuss further below) and an increase in supply (higher supply) has widened this gap, relative to prior years. The silver-lining here is that, despite the slowdown, trends still remains above long-term trends for Calgary. I would see this as a slight market pullback from furious activity in prior years, which is healthy for an evolving market.

One of the largest drivers of a drop in demand has been the ease in population growth. 

International Immigration: 50% decline in 2025 compared to 2024

Interprovincial Immigration: 28% decline in 2025 compared to 2024

In Calgary, we're expecting a +3.1% population growth rate (compared to a +6% growth in 2024). Calgary still continues to attract families and individuals, which is why we're still seeing a positive growth rate, albeit, a bit slower. 

Rental Market Shift

As a result of the slower migration, we've seen a material shift in the rental market, further complicated by purpose-built rentals.

Currently in Calgary, we've seen an enormous mountain of rental inventory come online over the last few quarters, ultimately impacting the net rental prices achieved (estimated vacancy rate is about ~9%). These figures also don't capture the 'shadow market' which are privately owned and operated landlord operations, only the big institutional figures that are publicly available dataset.

New Home Supply Continues to Grow

Resale market continues to compete with a the growing new home inventory. A lot of the new supply has been in the apartment sector, and most of which also represent purpose-built rental units.

Sales to New Listing Ratio (Resale Market)

We've seen a bloating of resale inventories over the last few months as I'm sure everyone has noticed, a lot more selection for buyers these days. 

In July, we've seen a 48% increase in inventories (YoY), reaching now above the 10-year average inventory figure of 5,866.

In August, we've seen ~57% sales to new-listings, which means for every 1 sale, there are about 2 new listings that come up. Our 10-year average rate has been ~64% absorption. While this is down from the 62% seen last August, we're still above 50% which remains healthy. Area of concern is when we start seeing sub-50% ratios.

Calgary Remains TOP for Affordability

Compared to the national housing averages and in context with median household income of key metropolitan areas, Calgary remains the top destination for affordability (leading to continuing population growth). Sure our sales rate has slowed, but our population rate continues to grow and is backed by a strong Alberta economy (more below). 

Alberta LEADS National GDP

It's no question - the Canadian economy is cooked. Regulation, tax systems, foreign investment appetite and growing public sector have all been detrimental to the growth and attractiveness of our economy, unfortunately. Coupled with lower immigration overall, and uncertainty of tariff impact on steel, aluminium, and auto - this is not good for Canadians. Despite this, the Alberta economy is slated to ring in the strongest growth amongst all provinces, signalling this is where people want to be for employment / investment opportunities. 

Changes in interest rates will be what the market will be keeping an eye on for future financial incentive of cheaper debt. With key inflation figures well within range for the BoC, we could see fewer rate cuts, and this time largely driven to incentivize growth.

Calgary's employment figures have also been strong, albeit slower than previous years. Important to note here the mix of job-types - with professional, scientific and technical jobs leading to the top gains. This, hopefully underscores the quality of demographics our city setting us up for strong durable growth in the future.

I know, it's a lot to distill - but in summary: we've seen a pullback in demand and material supply increases, following HUGE advances in sales and price growth. These levels are not of concern. The Alberta economy is primed to lead the country in growth, with Calgary's job market leading quality advances. Fundamentally remains a healthy market (while the rest of the country is seeing detrimental activity in real estate). 

For my buyer clients: this slowdown in activity has been long-awaited. There's no saying when the window of opportunity and vast selection of properties will close; most importantly, making a move could set you up for a lifestyle, financing terms, and home selection we've been waiting for - act, prepare now.

For my seller clients: it may be discouraging seeing some of these figures, but that means you need a strong team at your back. Price strategy is KEY. Marketing is more important than ever, and professional advice is imperative. Get ahead of the market to achieve your goals, and we are here to help.

Still some warm weather for the rest of the week, wrapping up the summer in 2025 (enjoy it out there)!

August pegged a critical month of real estate activity following a few years of quite the heated real estate market in Calgary (this August saw the highest inventory jump since 2019). The unadjusted residential benchmark price was $577,200, down month over month, and down ~4% compared to last year. 

The bulk of the impact is from townhome and apartments, with a staggering increase in supply hitting the market. Stability with some modest growth in detached and semi-detached housing, but areas / neighbourhoods matter, with communities with the largest supply growth (via new builds) seeing the bulk of the impact. 

More inventory + lower sales, led August to see ~3.4 months of supply. 

In recent news, Canadian GDP slowed sharply in Q2, coming in weaker at -1.6% (annualized), following a 2% gain in Q1 2025. Still in line with the BoC estimates, but the weakness was largely concentrated in heavy trade-exposed sectors. Banks are expecting GDP growth to slow further (still positive) for the remainder of 2025, but this will largely impact the BoC's upcoming rate decision on September 17th. (more from RBC)

Potential expectations of rate cuts could provide some incentive for buyers in real estate, but will unlikely be as strong as prior years with slowing international immigration and growing housing supply from new home builders and purpose-built rentals.

Looking for something to do this weekend while the weather is still good? Check out the list of events going on this weekend!

Housing supply continues to increase in the city of Calgary, with nearly 7,000 units for sale in July across detached, semi-detached, townhomes and apartments. Inventories haven't been this high since before the pandemic, and are now higher than long-term trends. This is nuanced however, with the largest gains of inventory acutely impacting new communities. 

The added supply has weighed on home prices in the city with the benchmark residential price trending downwards over the last couple months (now ~4% below last year's peak) across all property types.

That said, price declines are not impacting all property types across all locations in the city. Even where there have been recent price declines, this hasn't erased gains made over the last several years, effectively setting a 'new floor' for home prices in Calgary. 

As I've mentioned previously, a healthy market will see fluctuations in supply and demand, and a pullback in pricing is positive for sustainable growth over long periods of time. 

Key persistent issues dampening demand are:

• Continued tariff uncertainty (clouding business decisions, and ultimately employment growth)

• Stubborn lending rates (BoC holding policy rates flat)

• Competition from the new home market

Tracking listings and sales over the last 10 years, we're seeing now inventories ~25% above the 5-year average and sales ~10% below the 5-year average. 

If you're looking to move, there's no time like the present to start the buying process. Especially if you're looking for a condo or townhome, as a buyer you have much more to select from to find the perfect home. Detached / semi-detached, a little more nuanced depending on the location but more options out there as well. 

If you're looking to sell, give us a call to chat. There's always a strategy no matter the market, but the key here is there are market tops and market troughs that will dictate the strategy and reasonable expectations to set during times of uncertainty. 

Between the two cities, you probably can't tell given the amount of rain we've had lately – Calgary recorded it's 5th wettest July in recorded history, with 139.6mm of rain as of Sunday evening, more than double the precipitation for July. 

The rainiest July in Calgary was recoded in 1927, with 245.4mm. Sunday's weather also broke summer temperature records, having the coldest daytime high for July (16.1 degrees), since 1931...

But fret not, we're seeing some sun on the way later this week with some actual summer weather (hopefully). 

That said, there are a few things I wanted to bring to your attention as current or potential home owners as it related to water management.

1. Eavestroughs: remember to have your eaves cleaned out at least twice a year (early spring / fall) to manage the amount of debris caught in the eaves and to prevent overflow (having overflow leads to bigger problems, more below)

- Inspect for leaks / overpour, and fix as soon as practically possible to prevent further deterioration

2.Gutters / Downspouts: Have gutters pointed away from your foundation at least 6-8 feet away; this prevents water from re-entering the soil beneath the foundation which could lead to increase hydrostatic pressure (side wall pressure against foundation), and possible water intrusion

- Inspect for leaks / overpour, and fix as soon as practically possible to prevent further deterioration

3. Grading: Imperative to have proper grading to allow water to rest away from the foundation of the home. Especially important in our city where we get a ton of freeze-thaw activity, this prevents ice from further damaging the foundation walls which can lead to water intrusion as well

- Ensure to keep an eye on pooling water around the foundation, you'll want to resolve this as soon as possible (big red flag)

- Use soil / gravel to grade away from the home so your lot will shed water

4. Rain Barrels: As much as "save for a rainy day" sounds old school as it is practical, it not only applies to finances, real estate but also actual rain water. We've had a ton of rain lately, so why not conserve your own bills and use it, it's free! Not to mention, better than tap water for your plants.

5. Sump Pump: For those who don't know what a sump pump is, this is a cistern cut into your foundation with an installed pump to pull out an excess water in the basement. This is key, and city code for most new-built infills today. It prevents water from accumulating in the basement, and expels it outside. Make sure you have a backflow value on the pump, but also make sure your sump pump line outside is directed at least 6-8 feet away from the foundation (similar to gutters) to prevent re-entry of water

It doesn't hurt to get an inspection of the home done, and is a wise choice especially before you sell. To point out any potential flaws that another inspector / buyer may flag, resulting in a price reduction or more work from your end. If you need help to point you in the right direction, or want some contacts of great inspectors we work with, give us a call. 

While spring is now behind us as of 4 days ago, CREB has published it's seasonal market update, highlighting real estate activity here in Calgary (and surrounding areas) that we've seen from January to May. 

Key Themes

The Not So Good

• Continued domestic economic uncertainty leading to lower consumer confidence

• Ongoing global economic uncertainties leading to lower business investment in Canada

• Slower trade

• Pause in rate hikes (but also fewer rate cuts)

• Record high housing starts (more new-built supply)

• Slower immigration levels (yet still strong)

The Good

• Alberta continues to lead Canadian GDP

• Supportive population growth with previous gains

• Resilient job market growth

• Lower expected lending rates in 2H

Overall, sales are slowing and we're seeing a much more balanced market. However, this is nuanced, as we see strong seller's market persist in lower-priced detached product (under $600,000). We're also expected to see some more market stability, without double-digit gains like we've seen in prior years, but also no huge prices losses. 

CREB expected prices to stabilize for the remainder of 2025:

In more detail, here's the breakdown:

Current Economic Outlook

• Current Inflation: 1.7% (April 2025)

• WTI Price: US$72/bbl (June 17, 2025)

• Policy Interest Rate: 2.75% (April 2025) --> 2.25% (2025 Expected)

• Calgary employment continues to be strong, peaking earlier this year since 2014

• Alberta net migration expected to see 41,880 NEW individuals arrive (majority of those to be interprovincial)

New Construction & Rental Market

Off record highs from last year, we continue to see new home starts continue to rise. However, much of the product being built is higher-density, intended for the rental market. This will continue softening the rental market. New product is also expected to weigh on condos and rows. We're also seeing higher days on market for neighbourhoods that have much more new-built product (infill type areas), since all that new product is competing with the resale market as well. 

For more property specific details, see the FULL REPORT HERE.

CREB release its monthly update for MAY this week, and it looks like prices have pulled back, a bit on an aggregate basis, largely due to Rowhomes and Apartments.

However, the detached market continues to be VERY active, now is the time to pursue a move if that's what you're thinking.

Despite the pullbacks and slower sales this year, we're still seeing sales remain >11% over long term trends for this time of year = very active market (i.e., # of detached home sales for the same week last year, nearly identical).

If folks are talking about a market crash in Calgary, that is far from the truth, and we're seeing a balancing from extreme sellers' conditions for the last few years. 

Stats below...

Given the housing crunch we've seen over the last couple of years, the City of Calgary announced a NEW HOUSING initiative Monday, targeting more affordable housing projects which will receive $30.7 million in investment for approximately 480 non-profit, non-market homes for Calgarians (Housing Capital Initiative).

These projects include senior, family and Indigenous housing projects across the city, ranging from one-bedrooms to three-bedrooms. 

These projects are located below:

Some of these projects will be using pre-fabricated modular housing units, allowing record build time - 21 days to build a completed module, with achieving 84 homes in 69 days. 

The current statistic is that ~275 people move here to Calgary, every single day - which has led to a massive increase in housing demand. With a detached home selling for ~$770K and condos for ~$336K in Calgary, owning a home remains out of reach or a challenge for many.

As many of you expect, this only addresses a very small portion of the underserved population - which is important, however the bigger picture remains challenged on the supply side for now for the general population. The picture is improving, as we're now seeing MUCH more inventory come to market (stats pulled every week at our office); approximately 128% increase in listings across all property types compared to the same time last year!

My recommendation if you're thinking about selling is to hit the market sooner rather than later. We often see slower sellers come to market in late Spring, which sees a build-up of inventory through to the end of summer, where it's typically slower (summer holiday), and your listing won't get the attention it deserves. 

If you're thinking about selling your property, give me a call / email, and I'd be happy to drop by to provide some professional advice on how we can sell your home in today's market!

Many of you might be wondering what the current Calgary real estate market is like now... after the Canadian Federal Election, and following the onset of certain tariffs from the U.S... 

CREB reported their monthly statistics (albeit April data), it shows an interesting picture leaving many wondering if we're back to a balanced market. I also came across an interesting article worth looking at (more about that below)..

Compared to April last year, we've seen a significant increase in listings, with total inventories rising to 5,876 units during the month -- this is double what we saw last year! However, last year's inventory was exceptionally low, and this total represents more of the longer-term trend. Sales are still happening, also consistent with long-term trends (despite being 22% lower than last year, which was an outlier). 

Previous gains in migration, stable employment levels, lower lending rates, better supply choice have help keep prices stable. With total months of supply, we're in a balanced market (generally), but really depends which segment we're looking at. 

Now, on that interesting article.. we know Alberta has seen a drove of people moving to the province for LOWER COSTS, LOWER TAXES, HIGHER AVERAGE INCOMES, but did you realize that the bulk of interprovincial migration is largely from people between the ages of 25-44, calling Alberta their new home. (Article) Why this is important, is that this demographic DRIVES consumption, and economic PRODUCTION. So we're seeing migration, but also skilled migration into our province which will set us up for (hopefully) a very promising future in our province.

Well, here we have it - Canadians have surprisingly supported another Liberal term, I guess we'll see how that goes over the next few years amongst a very interesting macroeconomic backdrop: US tariffs, rising inflation, increasing development, labour shortage, slower immigration than prior years. 

That said, it might be worth noting a few facts I came across this week on CALGARY, and why we're building SO MUCH it seems like. Given all the development going on in the city, are we OVER-BUILDING what actual demand is? Well, let's have a look:

1. Over the last year, 91,000 new people made Calgary home

2. Prior to that, 83,000 new people made Calgary home

That's a total combined 164,000 new people that have moved to the Calgary metropolitan area in just the last TWO YEARS. That's the entire population of Kelowna, moving to Calgary in the last ~700 days (~10% of the population of the city).

In 2024, Calgary achieved a RECORD 20,000+ new housing starts and 19,500 the year prior (i.e., 24% of all new people who moved here) - that is more PER CAPITA than any Canadian city assessed by the CMHC. The trend continued in Q1 2025, and Calgary alone, is producing more than 50% of Alberta's housing starts... 

So we consider that there are ~40,000 new housing starts against 164,000 people that have moved here over the last two years, that's a stark contrast. We definitely have seen that in our rental market with rents increasing at the fastest pace last year (although now softening...).

That's just a taste of what's happened over the last little while... will be interesting to see what the Feds will do to support housing, and if can actually be achieved (we'll see).

If you're looking to sell your home, please reach out for a free, no-obligation market assessment, and I'd love to give my opinion based on professional service, experience and knowledge of the Calgary market. Thanks again for everyone's support for helping me achieve the Top 10 Realtor in our office last year of ~120 agents -- more to come!

Well, we're finally here -- the long awaited Federal Election in Canada, set for April 28th. If you haven't gone out to vote yet, I highly encourage it! Make your voice heard, and the best way to do that is by voting. Now of course, I'm going staying away from talking politics here, but thought it would be worth sharing the leading parties' plans for HOUSING here in Canada, since it's been quite the hot issue these days. 

As with all things market-related, we really need to consider the SUPPLY and DEMAND side of the equation to get a full picture of how housing could unfold under each party's leadership. 

On the DEMAND side, there's certainly a lot to consider (immigration, economy, interest rates, demographics, etc.). Too much to cover here today, but we can touch on immigration. Much of the housing demand has been seen as a direct result of influx of international migrants, with trickle-down effect on local demographic demand, rental housing, and much more. For now, all parties acknowledge this is an issue and have dialed BACK immigration - with both the Conservative and Liberal parties both supporting immigration CAPS. This is a shift from policy for the Liberal party which emphasized economic growth through immigration. 

On the SUPPLY side, here's a quick comparison of the platform policies for each party, so you're aware:

How realistic these targets / goals / policies are, are to be determined.. 

Of course there are certainly other considerations when picking who to lead our country next - but wanted to share from a real estate perspective. Make sure you get out there to make your voice heard!

WELCOME TO SPRING! Hoping everyone is enjoying the nice weather we've been having in Calgary this week - lots to do around town!

As we step into the notoriously busy real estate season, CREB issued their monthly market update for MARCH... 

Key theme over the last three months has been, and continues to be ongoing economic uncertainty weighing on consumer confidence, ultimately impacting the housing activity last month, seeing a 19% decline of sales (YoY). The silver lining here are that prices have stabilized, with less pressure to the upside providing some variety to buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines. Not to mention, rates are also expected to come down FURTHER, with the next BoC meeting on interest rates scheduled for April 16, 2025. 

It's no surprise, HOWEVER, important to note that sales still remain stronger than during the oil price downturn in 2015-2020; summary below:

We had the pleasure of hosting Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board at our offices on Monday to chat about 1) what's happened so far this year for Calgary real estate, and 2) what we can expect for the remainder of the year. I've included some interesting notes below for your consumption, but please reach out if you have any questions!

#1 – Inventories in Calgary continue to rise: yet we're still below the long-term average of 4,672 units for sale and is a dramatic increase in inventories since last year (+76% YoY).

#2 – Prices have seen an extraordinary increase over the last few years, and we're now starting to see a slowdown in growth (which is healthy for the overall market). Notable, we're seeing the biggest shift in the Apartment sector, where there is increased inventory.

#3 – Detached homes sales have SLOWED, but largely due to limited supply under $700K. Prices have somewhat stabilized after the past 3 years after seeing a ~23% increase.

#4 – Location matters for real estate with the tightest part of the detached homes market being properties in the South priced between $500-600K, and the opposite with a lot of inventory in the NE in ranges between $700-800K. 

#5 – What's in store for 2025, you may ask?? Well - there's one thing for sure, and that is uncertainty. Business investment slows when there is uncertainty, particularly around tariffs (on what, for how long, how much?), and the outcome of the Canadian federal election.. 

For certain, we can expect slower migration rates compared to the last few years, and increasing housing supply as new builds come onto the market. But, the market will ebb and flow as it always has. So long as you're aware of the impacts and trends, and armed with good information and advice, that's the best we can do!