Kicking off 2025, we had CREB's annual forecast day yesterday, bringing in some LIVE insights for what may be coming to Calgary's Real Estate Market this upcoming year.
A few key drivers as you'll see below, but our year is ripe with uncertainty, namely around the potential U.S. tariffs. However, Alberta has been very well-positioned, and our neighbours south of the border need our energy exports. The true impact of the tariffs is very much up in the air...
That said, below is the summary of the forecast for sales and price growth for 2025 (Full CREB Report HERE):
Key Factors Driving for Increasing Demand:
• Past gains in population and employment continue to work it's way through the economy
• Easing lending rates (Q1 2025E = 2.75%; Q2 2025E = 2.25%; Q3 2025E = 2.00%; Q4 2025E = 2.00% - RBC Economics)
• Continued interprovincial migration (Calgary saw >5% population growth in 2024, expected to ease to +3.1% in 2025)
• Alberta to lead economic growth in Canada (Alberta GDP growth expected to be +2.5% in 2025, no change from last year - ATB Economics; AB's growth to be driven in investments in alternative energy, carbon capture, food manufacturing, tech & AI) - notable, top growth sectors in AB: Construction, Retail Trade, Healthcare, Education and Primary & Utilities
• A note around employment figures: we're expected to see a decrease in employment growth, however Anne-Marie (CREB's Chief Economist) provided her insights into this as it's a bit nuanced - long story short, is that the unemployment figures have been elevated due to the material increase of international migrants, who are here looking for work; rather than gloom and doom layoffs, etc. This is important to understand, as these migrants should get absorbed into the workforce over the next while, hopefully contributing to improved employment figures
Key Factors Driving for Increasing Supply:
• Slowing international migration (AB population growth expected to see an increase still, +1.9% in 2025, down from 4.4% in 2024)
• Increased competition from new home sales (22,563 housing units have been completed at the end of November 2024, including 9,340 purpose-built rentals, increasing supply, and softening the rental market; new home starts reaching record highs, and expected to slow but remains strong)
• Heightened economic uncertainty (i.e. potential tariffs, politics)
If you're thinking about making moves this year, definitely reach out to get our sense of the market and our expertise! Always free for a call.