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CREB held their annual forecast conference last week. Reviewing 2025 activity and what's expected in store for this new year... Below is a high-level summary of the discussion points delivered by CREB's Chief Economist, Ann-Marie Lurie.
2025 Was Weaker than Expected
We were expecting price growth for detached properties of 2.9% at the end of 2024, but ended up only at +0.8% YoY, while condo and townhomes saw a value decrease of -2.7% and -2.1%, respectively.
Sales Slowed but Remained Above Trend
2026 is expected to see a drop in sale activity (~2% decline) over 2025 activity, however - this level of transactions remain above the long-term trend.
Alberta Population Growth Easing
On the back of the federal initiative to reduce the number of international immigrants, we've seen a demand-side impact on housing, with total numbers dropping from 153,542 (2024), 73,198 (2025) and 39,200 forecasted for 2026 - a 46% decline in immigration. We're seeing fewer interprovincial migrants as well, with those key markets seeing an adjustment in home prices (Toronto and Vancouver), with a 21% decline in migrants expected in 2026.
The resulting impact to Calgary, is a 1.3% growth in population in our city, down from 3% in 2025. Mind you, this is still reflective of population GROWTH, albeit at a slower rate.
Strong Jobs in Calgary
Calgary remains a top destination for job prospects in Canada. However, we are expected to see slower job growth (likely as a result of slower population growth), of about 0.4% employment growth (down from 4.3% in 2025). Calgary's unemployment rate expected to remain flat compared to 2025.
No Further Rate Cuts Expected
There are no further interest rate cuts expected in the near-term. In fact, some economists are modelling rate increases near the end of 2027.
Supply Rising Across Broader Market
With the record housing starts, we're seeing both resale and new home inventory rising. The impact of this is a slowly increasing vacancy rate. In addition, many of the new build properties are high-density (condo / townhomes), for which more than 50% are on a rental-only basis...
The good news is that we're seeing new construction slow down with only 18,415 starts expected for 2026 (vs. 27,866 starts in 2025). The bulk of these starts are in the North West region, and >50% of these are expected to be rental-only.
Key Risks Persist in 2026
Upsides: potentially some increased business activity with a strong Canadian energy backdrop, depending on how Ottawa dictates our energy platform...
Downside: Weaker commodity prices, tariff uncertainty, local supply growth
Overall, we'll see a slowing of activity in 2026, which is great for buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines for some time. It doesn't come without it's uncertainties however, but who can ever perfect market timing? On the seller's side - it's better to get aligned with the new picture. Some folks I talk to are still dreaming about 2022/2023 pricing, and sad to say but those days are over. The market ebbs and flows, with peaks and troughs. The best you can do is get up to speed on the market, and act in the best interest of you and the family.
Happy to chat if you have any questions if you're thinking about making a move. The more you know, the better armed you are at making key decisions!
